The clinical and economic costs associated with regional disparities in varicella vaccine coverage in Italy over 50 years (2020–2070)

Italy implemented two-dose universal varicella vaccination (UVV) regionally from 2003 to 2013 and nationally from 2017 onwards. Our objective was to analyze regional disparities in varicella outcomes resulting from disparities in vaccine coverage rates (VCRs) projected over a 50-year time-horizon (2020–2070). A previously published dynamic transmission model was updated to quantify the potential public health impact of the UVV program in Italy at the national and regional levels. Four 2-dose vaccine strategies utilizing monovalent (V) and quadrivalent (MMRV) vaccines were evaluated for each region: (A) MMRV-MSD/MMRV-MSD, (B) MMRV-GSK/MMRV-GSK, (C) V-MSD/MMRV-MSD, and (D) V-GSK/MMRV-GSK. Costs were reported in 2022 Euros. Costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were discounted 3% annually. Under strategy A, the three regions with the lowest first-dose VCR reported increased varicella cases (+ 34.3%), hospitalizations (+ 20.0%), QALYs lost (+ 5.9%), payer costs (+ 22.2%), and societal costs (+ 14.6%) over the 50-year time-horizon compared to the three regions with highest first-dose VCR. Regions with low first-dose VCR were more sensitive to changes in VCR than high first-dose VCR regions. Results with respect to second-dose VCR were qualitatively similar, although smaller in magnitude. Results were similar across all vaccine strategies.